With more than 1,000 civilians dead and over 10 million Ukrainians displaced from a war that shows no signs of abating, alarm bells of human suffering are going off just as the pandemic has started to quiet down.

Like many of you, I wonder what we as the inclusive finance community can learn and do. It’s a familiar act of introspection: two years ago, I wrote a blog post reflecting on my many years of <a href="https://centerforfinancialinclusion.org/pandemics-and-natural-disasters-what-can-we-learn-from-past-disasters-to-help-with-todays-pandemic/">working on conflict and in crisis environments</a>, asking what these experiences can teach us about the pandemic. In a follow-up post, I provided lessons on what <a href="https://centerforfinancialinclusion.org/how-should-fsps-respond-to-the-covid-19-pandemic/">financial services providers</a> could do to lessen the strain on their customers and themselves.

Nearly two years later and after a Herculean effort by governments, financial services providers, investors, and the donor community to support people’s ability to withstand the ebbs and flows of the pandemic, a new crisis is upon us. Although the conflict in Eastern Europe is far from the low-income countries that typically get our attention, the ongoing war poses numerous risks to the global community.
<blockquote class="pullquote--right">Although the conflict in Eastern Europe is far from the low-income countries that typically get our attention, the ongoing war poses numerous risks to the global community.</blockquote>
We’re already seeing the impact of the war on oil prices and there is cause for alarm that food insecurity could pose serious concerns for many. Countries that are particularly reliant on wheat imports from Ukraine or fertilizer ingredients from Russia will experience significantly more <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/03/12/war-in-ukraine-will-cripple-global-food-markets" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ripple effects</a> than those in the most developed nations. And Russian citizens are suffering from livelihoods impacts, cut off from the global financial system as the grip of sanctions tightens. However, there’s no such thing as a regional conflict and there are universal lessons that can be drawn.

So, what did we learn from the pandemic that bears on our understanding of the current Ukraine crisis, and how will it impact the lives of low-income people, especially women, who are disproportionately affected? Demand and supply shocks, financial coping strategies, cash transfers, and remittances are issues to keep a close watch on.
<h2>1   Demand shocks have a time-bound effect on low-income people.</h2>
At the onset of the pandemic, the lockdowns and other measures that were taken to reduce the health risks of COVID-19 severely disrupted demand. The net effect of these actions on the economy was a severe contraction of demand for non-essential goods and services. When lockdown measures were removed, demand resumed. This is best seen through data on micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), the businesses where most low-income workers are employed. CFI’s data on these businesses shows that while they have not fully recovered, they remain on track to return to pre-pandemic levels of operation.

In the latest wave of <a href="https://centerforfinancialinclusion.org/research/covid-19-and-msmes-data-and-analysis-to-understand-impact/">data CFI collected</a> in mid-2021, only 26 percent of businesses reported reduced profits compared to 83 percent early in the pandemic (see chart). More than a year after the onset of COVID-19, MSMEs in the four markets surveyed in the longitudinal study were operating at 80 percent of their pre-pandemic workforce.

<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-44171" src="https://content.centerforfinancialinclusion.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/03/MSME-graph-profit-trends-2-ukraine-blog.png" alt="graph" width="800" height="324" />
<h2>2   Supply shocks are likely to create larger and longer ripple effects on low-income people.</h2>
Because the situation in Ukraine is not a demand shock but a supply shock, the effect on low-income people is likely to be more severe. For one, low-income people spend a larger proportion of their income on food and, as food prices are expected to skyrocket, this will have a disproportionately negative effect on low-income people.

Egypt, which imports 80 percent of its wheat from Ukraine, is perhaps the most vulnerable country to supply shocks on wheat. Egypt also has a long history of “<a href="https://science.time.com/2011/01/31/bread-is-life-food-and-protest-in-egypt/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">bread riots</a>” in 1977 and 2008, in other words, food insecurity quickly can turn to political insecurity. Other countries in MENA, already on the verge of complete collapse, like Lebanon and Yemen, are also heavily dependent on Ukrainian wheat. In a region with a history of political and social unrest, people’s ability to withstand further shocks is severely curtailed. Beyond the MENA region, <a href="https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/special-focus/ukraine-crisis/ukraine-wheat-invasion-agriculture-russia" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Turkey</a> are also significant importers of Ukrainian wheat.

Additionally, the war’s impact on gas prices and fertilizer will also have a significant ripple effect on smallholder farmers globally, further impacting the world’s food insecurity and increasing the cost of living globally.
<h2>3   When people’s reserves already are strained from shocks, their ability to cope with challenges is curtailed.</h2>
Our research shows that MSMEs have coped with the pandemic in various ways, including: drawing down savings, laying off employees, raising or lowering prices, reducing food intake, and borrowing from friends and family. Our data also shows that MSMEs that had experienced <a href="https://www.centerforfinancialinclusion.org/the-precarious-state-of-msmes-understanding-the-impact-of-covid-19-and-opportunities-to-support-their-recovery">prior shocks due to natural disasters</a>, were slower to recover from the pandemic.

As businesses and people have been depleted over the past two years, their ability to rely on tried and tested coping strategies -- like using their savings or borrowing from friends -- are severely curtailed. This is a reality in developed countries as well as in developing ones. CFI’s data shows that, on average, MSME owners depleted more than half of their savings during the pandemic, and a quarter of the respondents relied on loans from friends and family to cover business or household expenses.
<h2>4   Rapid cash transfers and government assistance are important for low-income people to weather crises.</h2>
CFI has <a href="https://www.centerforfinancialinclusion.org/series/policy-responses-to-covid-19-their-impacts-on-low-income-customers">written extensively</a> about the importance of government transfers to lessen the impacts of the pandemic. Governments’ ability to identify vulnerable people and distribute cash assistance is one of the few silver linings of the pandemic. Decades of policy reforms and investments in digital infrastructure made this test case possible. Indeed, the latest Economist Impact's <a href="https://centerforfinancialinclusion.org/rethinking-the-global-microscope-for-financial-inclusion-2021-key-findings-report/">Microscope</a> showed that countries that had invested in digital infrastructure were more likely to distribute cash transfers during the pandemic.

However, data from the World Bank that <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/international-debt-statistics-2022-multilateral-institutions-paved-way-highest-level-net">monitors debt flows of low- and middle-income countries</a> (LMICs) shows that LMICs’ debt stocks are an all-time high, rising to $8.7 trillion by the end of 2020. Whether governments will be able to step in to distribute more cash because of the effects of this war is still to be seen, but the likelihood is low, putting low-income people at possible risk of being left with little relief if needed.
<h2>5   People need access to affordable and reliable remittances during emergencies.</h2>
Relief organizations like UNHCR, UNICEF, WFP, IRC, Save the Children, and others are already mobilizing to support the exodus of Ukrainians, offering protection, food, and shelter. But often humanitarian assistance is fickle and temporary. The conditions are ripe for something more dramatic and scalable. The unprecedented attention on Ukraine, the population’s digital readiness, Europe’s willingness to allow Ukrainians to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-plans-grant-ukrainians-right-stay-up-3-years-2022-02-28/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">remain for three-year residencies</a>, and the lessons from COVID cash transfers point to the potential for a new global experiment: low-cost remittances to people affected by war.
<blockquote class="pullquote--left">The conditions are ripe for something more dramatic and scalable.</blockquote>
Reducing fees on remittances by even 2 percentage points could <a href="https://www.knomad.org/publication/russia-ukraine-conflict-implications-remittance-flows-ukraine-and-central-asia" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">save Ukrainian migrants $400 million</a>, and complement scaling up aid efforts. <a href="https://wise.com/gb/blog/update-ukraine" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Wise waived their fees</a> briefly, but such relief is temporary. People are already using interesting workarounds like <a href="https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/ukraine-airbnb-donations-cec/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">paying for apartments on Airbnb</a> as a way to send money to people in Ukraine. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/paypal-expands-payments-services-help-ukrainian-citizens-refugees-2022-03-17/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">PayPal just announced an expansion of its services</a> to address the Ukrainian crisis, also waiving fees temporarily until June 30. What would it take to get low-cost remittances in the hands of the people who need it most, while protecting their identities and limiting opportunities for fraud?

It's too soon to know how deep this conflict will go, what measures Russia will take to inflict even more suffering on Ukrainian – and its own – people, and how far-reaching this conflict will be. People’s ability to find ways to cope in the face of seemingly insurmountable challenges always astounds me. But it leaves me wondering: why does it have to be this hard and what can we do to alleviate the impact on low-income people?

What Can COVID-19 Teach Us About the War in Ukraine? 5 Things to Remember

<em>&gt; Posted by Daniel Balson, Lead Specialist for Eurasia and MENA, the Smart Campaign</em>

[caption id="attachment_23879" align="aligncenter" width="615"]<a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/worldbank/4248402729/in/album-72157631291110788/"><img class="wp-image-23879" style="border:0 solid #000000" src="https://centerforfinancialinclusionblog.files.wordpress.com/2017/07/4248402729_409bc54767_b.jpg" alt="" width="615" height="409" /></a> Outside the Tosh Hovli Stone Palace of Khiva, an Uzbek lady practices her craft, knitting.[/caption]

At the Center for Financial Inclusion (CFI), we spend a lot of time thinking of ways economically marginalized people can gain access to the capital they need to lift themselves out of poverty. Through our work, we’ve repeatedly seen that, while talent is universal, opportunity is not. Large swathes of the population across the developing world have limited access to the formal financial system and are stuck managing money in ways that are often inconvenient, inefficient, and sometimes even involve humiliation and abuse.

Focusing on places where economically vulnerable people are at risk, however instructive, risks obscuring the fact that great divides exist across gender in many diverse geographies. In developed countries as in the developing nations, women lag behind men in indicators that measure entrepreneurship and economic empowerment. Their societies are poorer for it. In the U.K., women-led businesses are far less likely to secure financing; <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidprosser/2017/03/27/eight-stats-that-show-how-britain-fails-its-female-entrepreneurs/#4cbe7ae174bd">91 percent of investment</a> was directed to companies without even one female founder. In the U.S., women <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/09/upshot/why-women-dont-see-themselves-as-entrepreneurs.html">make up half the labor force</a> but own just a third of all companies.

The reasons for these discrepancies are myriad. Women are often shut out of informal “old-boy networks” where entrepreneurs can find critical funding, support, and advice. Women are <a href="https://cfi-blog.org/2017/02/02/5141000-reasons-women-marched/">less likely than men</a> to have experienced role models who understand their challenges. Starting a business is a lonely endeavor and the absence of a mentor can make it even lonelier. As amply demonstrated by recent scandals in Silicon Valley, including at the ride-sharing app <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jun/13/david-bonderman-resigns-uber-board-sexist-remark">Uber</a> and venture capital fund <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/07/04/silicon_valley_investor_dave_mcclure_resigns_after_harassment_claims_i_m.html">500 Start-ups</a>, plain sexism and discrimination play a role as well. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/21/sunday-review/women-ceos-glass-ceiling.html?ref=opinion">A 2016 survey</a> that polled over 34,000 people found that women who angled for a promotion were 30 percent more likely to be labeled as "bossy," "intimidating," and "aggressive" as their male counterparts.

Across many countries where CFI works, women entrepreneurs must contend with these challenges as well as numerous others. Central Asia offers an instructive example. The region is steeped in a Soviet-era mythos of gender equality, where women are portrayed as having thrown off the veil and grabbed the factory lathe. The reality is quite different.

Throughout Central Asia, millions of men leave their families to search for economic opportunities abroad. In 2016, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/19/eastern-promises-migrant-workers-turning-backs-russia">some 2 million Uzbek men</a>, representing almost 13 percent of the country’s entire male population, were working in Russia. As a result, millions of women are left to raise children themselves while working to supplement meager remittances. Central Asian families are large and close knit, with Kyrgyz and Tajik women giving birth to <a href="http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/fertility/world-fertility-patterns-2015.pdf">more than three children</a> on average. Younger women are also expected to care for elderly family members as they near the end of their lives. With no men to assist them, caregiving responsibilities add up quickly and women have little time and money to dedicate to entrepreneurship.

The women who manage to start a business of their own will face serious obstacles. Investors working in the region have told CFI that financial institutions often view female borrowers as riskier and less loyal clients than their male counterparts. Women face a higher rate of loan rejection though women generate a <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/479131468250293544/pdf/659310WP00PUBL065737B0Gender0Report.pdf">similar level of profit per unit of revenue</a> as men. Regional participants in the financial inclusion sector observe that, when data is held constant for capital and sector, there is no evidence that women-run businesses are less successful or that they generate a smaller return.

Female borrowers who are able to secure a loan face a very firm and very low glass ceiling; women borrow more often than men but at lower levels and thus face substantial difficulty evolving their small businesses to SME-level enterprises. While a bakery run by a man may soon grow to a catering company or a restaurant, women-owned shops will frequently remain small-scale sole proprietorships.

The difficulty Central Asian businesswomen have in reaching scale may be partially explained by how their household obligations incentivize a certain type of borrowing and spending. In October 2016, CFI research fellow Christy Stickney, developed a report entitled, <em><a href="http://www.centerforfinancialinclusion.org/programs-a-projects/cfi-fellows-program/762">Emerging SMEs: Secrets to Growth from Micro to Small Enterprise</a></em>. The report used qualitative research to identify and analyze Latin American clients whose borrowing had increased significantly over time. Unlike their Central Asian counterparts, the women covered in Stickney’s report had no difficulty accessing credit and did not report facing discrimination from loan officers. Nonetheless, the report found that, like women in Central Asian, Latin American women do not feature prominently as lead owners or owner-managers of higher growth businesses. The reason for this seems to be that women’s investment strategies are more diverse than men. So, while women covered in the report actually tended to borrow more than men, they did so to invest in education opportunities for their children, support their elderly in-laws, and repair their homes rather than pour their capital into a single high-growth business model.

Family dynamics hinder female entrepreneurship in other ways. Most Central Asian financial institutions only accept fixed assets as collateral and, because such assets are registered only in the husband’s name, women are unable to secure collateralized debt while their husbands work abroad. In recent years, many men have returned home, pushed by Russia’s tightening immigration policies, collapsing ruble and softening economy. Yet their repatriation does little to liberate their wives’ entrepreneurial ambitions. One representative of a multilateral institution, who requested anonymity in order to speak frankly about the region’s challenges, told CFI that returning remittance men often fund their own businesses by cannibalizing credit originally allotted to their spouse.

Gender-based discrimination results not only in denial of financing but often in <a href="http://centralasiaprogram.org/blog/2016/02/17/the-marginalization-of-rural-women-entrepreneurs-in-tajikistan/">denial of land rights</a> and decision-making authority over its use. In rural Central Asia, where agriculture remains the primary economic activity, local farming collectives are chiefly responsible for allocating land plots and determining how they will be used. Women are frequently denied decision-making roles on these bodies and often lack the mechanisms necessary to make their voices, and their ideas, heard.

While these challenges are substantial, they are hardly insurmountable. In the second part of this series, we’ll consider how some programs are unleashing Central Asian women’s entrepreneurial spirit. We’ll look at how investors, financial institutions, government authorities, and other stakeholders can ensure that women receive equal access to capital and make capital markets work for them and their businesses. We’ll also explore steps financial service providers and regulators can take to ensure that women entering into the formal economy for the first time have their rights protected. Finally, we’ll consider whether any of these innovative strategies can offer insights on how best to address gender disparities in the U.S.

<em>Image credit: <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/worldbank/4248402729/in/album-72157631291110788/">Brigitte Brefort / The World Bank</a></em>

<strong>Have you read?</strong>

<a href="https://cfi-blog.org/2016/04/20/g2p-and-gender-when-will-pakistani-women-be-able-to-withdraw-their-own-money/">G2P and Gender: When Will Pakistani Women Be Able to Withdraw Their Own Money?</a>

<a href="https://cfi-blog.org/2016/01/11/celebrating-women-leaders-profiles-of-financial-inclusion-pioneers/">Celebrating Women Leaders: Profiles of Financial Inclusion Pioneers</a>

<a href="https://cfi-blog.org/2017/02/24/why-women-in-smes-lean-out/">Why Women in SMEs Lean Out</a>

Gender-Based Financial Exclusion in Central Asia

<em>&gt; Posted by the Platform for Inclusive Finance (NpM)</em>

<img class="alignright wp-image-17776" src="https://centerforfinancialinclusionblog.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/ey.png?w=213" alt="" width="250" height="352" />How has the microfinance industry leveraged regulation and supervision to safeguard client wellbeing? In priority areas like over-indebtedness, acceptable pricing, and transparency, what progress has been made to ensure that institutions are operating responsibly? And in cases where regulatory actions have been taken, how have they been implemented? A recent research project conducted by EY and the Platform for Inclusive Finance (NpM) investigates these questions across 12 country markets and assesses the current state of client protection regulation in microfinance.

The growth of the inclusive finance sector has helped create significant opportunities for low-income people around the world. However, when not done correctly, access to financial products also has the potential to bring harm. Of the increasing importance of client protection and sound regulation, EY Senior Manager and one of the report’s authors, Justina Alders-Sheya remarked: “The sector is growing and to do so responsibly, it is necessary that supervisory authorities perform their role."

Drawing on questionnaires completed by local stakeholders, the study examined whether laws and regulations on client protection have been implemented in any way in the 12 studied countries: Azerbaijan, Bolivia, Cambodia, Ghana, India, Kenya, Peru, the Philippines, Rwanda, Russia, Tanzania, and Uganda. The study also examined the regulatory and supervisory landscape for client protection in each country. It investigated who is creating the regulations, how they’re being enforced, and the role of industry players like microfinance associations and credit bureaus.

Key players in the microfinance sector launched the <a href="http://www.smartcampaign.org/">Smart Campaign</a> to improve protection of clients throughout the industry. This international initiative for responsible microfinance has seven <a href="http://smartcampaign.org/about/smart-microfinance-and-the-client-protection-principles" target="_blank">Client Protection Principles</a>. This study focused on three of those principles: prevention of over-indebtedness, responsible pricing, and transparency.

What did the research uncover?

In large part, the legal and regulatory landscape for microfinance is still developing. Not all countries have specific law or regulations for the microfinance sector, but seven of the 12 studied countries (Bolivia, Cambodia, Ghana, India, Kenya, Russia, and Uganda) do. However, these specific measures do not necessarily include provisions on client protection, as most are focused on financial requirements for microfinance institutions.

In terms of over-indebtedness, the research shows that less than half of the studied countries have rules for adequate care during all steps in the credit process. Only five countries have specific microfinance regulation aimed at preventing over-indebtedness, despite the fact that research participants perceive over-indebtedness as a big issue across the global industry. Many MFIs are non-deposit-taking (NBFC-MFIs) and thus don’t fall within the regulatory framework for commercial banking, which may address over-indebtedness more explicitly. In Cambodia, for example, NBFC-MFIs are excluded from the obligation of monitoring total loan exposure to single beneficiaries. A bright spot in this space is Tanzania, which through the Microcredit Activities Regulations (2004), requires all institutions engaged in offering microcredit to conduct an appraisal of the character, payment history, and payment capacity of each client. Credit-reporting bureaus are still developing, making the availability of information on borrower indebtedness and repayment history, especially for smaller microfinance institutions, a concern.

On responsible pricing, seven countries do not have applicable regulations, referring instead to transparency and the sales process, with price-setting being left to the market. As for the five countries with such regulation, in Peru, Russia, and the Philippines microfinance institutions are covered by regular financial law and regulation concerning price-setting, and Cambodia and India have specific price-setting rules for the microfinance sector.

Laws and regulations on transparency in microfinance are the most well-developed of the three targeted client protection areas. Nine countries have regulations on the communication and dissemination of information between microfinance institutions and their clients. Beyond rules on clearly outlining the pricing, costs, and expenses, some countries extend their transparency regulations to other areas, like advertising, in Peru’s case.

Across the surveyed countries central banks are the most important law and regulation enforcement entities (in 11 countries). The study indicated that in countries where MFIs are under supervision, regular oversight visits to institutions occurred. Microfinance associations and special microfinance authorities also get involved in the monitoring and auditing of MFIs in some cases. In instances where there is no specific microfinance regulation, NBFC-MFIs are not always audited. Consumer protection agencies also sometimes contribute to addressing client protection in microfinance. On the whole, many different types of authorities are involved in law and regulation, with varying levels of monitoring and audit scrutiny.

Beyond these areas, Josien Sluijs, Director of  NpM points out the role of empowered clients in client protection: "In addition to regulation and enforcement, attention to financial literacy of clients is as important to develop and implement." Enhancing financial literacy among clients is a necessary step in the movement to ensure that microfinance best serves its clients.

A logical step for follow-up of the study would be to research how to improve law and regulation in a practical way and to even develop a ranking of countries so that investors have good insight on the current status on law and regulation in different countries. This knowledge might even be included in investors' due diligence. Points to consider for further research on this topic may be obtained from the report, which can be read by clicking <a href="http://www.inclusivefinanceplatform.nl/documents/ey%20microfinance%20client%20protection-%20law%20-%20regulation.pdf">here</a>. To learn more about NpM, the Platform for Inclusive Finance, click <a href="http://www.inclusivefinanceplatform.nl/home">here</a>.

<strong>Have you read?</strong>

<a href="http://cfi-blog.org/2015/03/06/regulatory-complexity-and-financial-inclusion/" target="_blank">Regulatory Complexity and Financial Inclusion</a>

<a href="http://cfi-blog.org/2014/10/20/is-regulation-enough-to-protect-u-s-servicemembers/" target="_blank">Is Regulation Enough to Protect U.S. Servicemembers?</a>

<a href="http://cfi-blog.org/2013/02/07/can-self-regulation-protect-microfinance-clients/" target="_blank">Can Self-Regulation Protect Microfinance Clients?</a>

Client Protection Law and Regulation in the Microfinance Industry

<em>&gt; Posted by Sonja E. Kelly, Fellow, CFI</em>

<a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/80487073@N00/5264924289/"><img class="alignright wp-image-15383" style="border:0 solid #ffffff" src="http://centerforfinancialinclusionblog.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/5264924289_30d7db9323_b.jpg?w=490" alt="" width="280" height="187" /></a>We are in full World Cup fervor in the Accion offices around the world, with jerseys making appearances at global staff meetings, water cooler conversations centering on surprise advancements (and eliminations), and a high incidence of lingering trips to the conference room screen to check scores in between meetings and deadlines. You could say things are getting a little heated as the group of teams still in the running gets smaller.

There have been a few attempts to use this global competition as an opportunity to better understand our world. <em>The Wall Street Journal</em> published a “<a href="http://graphicsweb.wsj.com/documents/WORLDCUPTOEE/#/?lang=en" target="_blank">World Cup of Everything Else</a>,” where countries can be matched up on categories from the hottest weather to the biggest eaters of seafood, and Dean Karlan produced a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/26/upshot/why-you-should-root-for-nigeria-or-brazil-mexico-or-ghana.html?hp&amp;action=click&amp;pgtype=Homepage&amp;module=second-column-region&amp;region=top-news&amp;WT.nav=top-news&amp;_r=0" target="_blank">set of predictions</a> based on population, poverty level, and interest in soccer to assess which country would experience the greatest increase in happiness with a World Cup victory (spoiler: Nigeria would have had the most aggregate happiness if it had won the tournament).

But what if the World Cup were a competition based on financial inclusion indicators? If we were to create a bracket where the country with the highest level of financial inclusion advanced, the European countries would all advance, which in my opinion wouldn’t be very interesting.

What if, however, we use the World Cup system to see where the highest number of financially excluded people are? We crunched the numbers to show you, of the countries that made it to Brazil for the competition, who would “win” the title of “highest number of financially excluded people.” Basing winners on the countries with the largest number of people without a formal bank account, we noticed a few surprises.


[caption id="attachment_15374" align="aligncenter" width="610"]<a href="https://centerforfinancialinclusionblog.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/world-cup-of-exclusion-6-30-14.pdf" target="_blank"><img class="wp-image-15374" style="border:0 solid #ffffff;margin-top:7px;margin-bottom:7px" src="http://centerforfinancialinclusionblog.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/world-cup-of-exclusion.png" alt="" width="610" height="383" /></a> Click on the bracket to enlarge it.[/caption]

Using the <a href="http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/EXTPROGRAMS/EXTFINRES/EXTGLOBALFIN/0,,contentMDK:23147627~pagePK:64168176~piPK:64168140~theSitePK:8519639,00.html" target="_blank">Global Findex data</a> on exclusion rates (measured by the percent of the population that reports not having an account) and <a href="http://esa.un.org/wpp/" target="_blank">UN population data</a>, we calculated the size, in number of people, of the excluded population within World Cup contender countries, beginning with the original FIFA groups. Not surprisingly, countries with large populations tend to be the “winners” in their groups.

Nigeria emerges as the final winner, with Brazil, Mexico, and the U.S. following closely behind. We often think of exclusion as being a low and middle income country problem, but as the advancement of high income countries in the brackets show us, exclusion is everyone’s problem—countries like the United States are no exception.

The bracket system doesn’t return the “top four” countries to the final (Russia, for example, would have made it farther) – after all advancing in a tournament depends on who you play. This exercise does, however, cause us to think about impact and global focus. Where are the highest numbers of excluded people, and how can financial inclusion efforts have the highest impact on access? Conversely, where are the countries where financial inclusion issues are not necessarily focused on access but rather on quality of engagement and quality of services? Which of these countries are the most active in conversations on financial inclusion, and will such conversations translate into a significant decrease in exclusion over time?

Part of what makes the World Cup so much fun is that it’s one of the few times when most of the world comes together, participating in and focusing on one thing. For me, it’s also one of the few times when I focus my attention on particular countries – ones that for whatever reason have stayed off my radar. Has it gotten you to think differently about the world, and about financial inclusion more specifically?

<em>Image credit: <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/80487073@N00/5264924289/" target="_blank">Alobos Life</a></em>

<strong>Have you read?</strong>

<a href="http://cfi-blog.org/2013/10/03/global-microscope-finds-the-world-getting-more-microfinance-friendly/" target="_blank">Global Microscope Finds World Getting More Microfinance-Friendly</a>

<a href="http://cfi-blog.org/2013/11/04/bob-annibale-on-global-trends-and-converging-key-players/" target="_blank">Bob Annibale: On Global Trends and Converging Key Players</a>

<a href="http://cfi-blog.org/2013/03/28/adventurers-unite-voyaging-through-data-in-our-mapping-the-invisible-market-website/" target="_blank">Adventurers, Unite: Voyaging Through Data in Our Mapping the Invisible Market Website</a>

The World Cup of Financial Exclusion

<em>&gt; Posted by Eric Zuehlke, Web and Communications Director, CFI </em>

<a href="http://www.yy.com/"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-15195" style="margin-bottom: 5px;border: 0 solid #ffffff" src="http://centerforfinancialinclusionblog.files.wordpress.com/2014/06/yy.png" alt="" width="630" height="360" /></a>Budding entrepreneurs, vendors, and everyday people in emerging economies are creating new ways of benefiting from the internet, using their own ingenuity in ways that go beyond the original intended use of many web-based platforms. A recent slideshow from Yiibu, a Scotland-based design and consulting firm, offers a dizzying array of examples of how people use the mobile web to sell and pay for anything you can think of, mostly in Asia along with the Middle East, Africa, and Russia.

The growth in traffic from growing economies is a familiar story (Yiibu mentions that Chinese, Indian, and Russian sites now make up almost half of the Alexa “top 20”). What’s new is how the mobile internet has opened up new ways of doing business for anyone with a smart phone. Individuals, small businesses, and major corporations are selling a jumbled mix of products and services, from cars and iPhones to handmade crafts to travel visa services.

Most of us may think of Instagram as a platform to show off our exotic travels to make our friends jealous, or to take selfies on a night out. But as the slideshow illustrates, by taking a photo of goods you want to sell, adding your phone number and price on the photo, Instagram becomes an immediate way to sell goods – even livestock. Facebook is also a way to set up a business site quickly and for free. Who needs web designers, hosting platforms, and domain registries when these platforms already exist for free and with a huge built in audience? And who needs brick and mortar stores when you can sell for free online to a much broader range of people? The market stalls become Facebook pages.

One of Yiibu’s key messages is that mobile isn’t a popular, convenient alternative to other mediums now. Rather, it is the primary, and increasingly, only way, to do business and access the web around the world. What all these examples have in common is that the mobile web is a user-led space. This is transforming the informal economy. Characteristics include:
<ul>
 	<li><strong>Ad-hoc adaptability:</strong> People adapt existing platforms as needed. An example: Facebook doesn’t take payments (<a href="http://cfi-blog.org/2014/04/16/facebook-to-provide-remittances-the-news-and-the-bigger-picture/">although that may be changing</a>)? No problem. Just list your account name for a popular local social messaging app and take orders directly.</li>
 	<li><strong>Broad reach: </strong> <a href="http://www.yy.com/">YY.com</a> in China, for example, has 300 million users and mixes the reach of video channels like YouTube with payment platforms that integrate virtual currency. Virtual currencies are used to pay for virtual gifts to give to Karaoke singers or other performers with videos on the site.</li>
 	<li><strong>Ease of use</strong>: Social media platforms that are popular in China, such as <a href="http://www.wechat.com/en/">WeChat</a>, allow users to text, chat via video or audio, send photos, set up their own mini-sites to sell goods, and send or receive payments – all on the same platform.</li>
 	<li><strong>Rural and urban users</strong>: Yiibu points out that people in rural Thailand are benefitting from mobile marketplaces and sellers in Chinese cities don’t have to worry about setting up physical stores.</li>
 	<li><strong>A globalized network: </strong>The presentation gives the example of an American baker who buys her supplies from individuals in China and then sells her cakes on Etsy and a small family-run fashion design firm in China that sells to Western markets on Etsy.</li>
</ul>
The lesson from all this seems to be that there is a huge amount we can learn from how people are adapting the mobile web to use financial services and sell products and services. We can find out about customer needs from how they adapt these services. The world is changing very fast and it’s hard to keep up with the variety of new platforms, technologies, and services out there. Along with innovation from above to reach more customers with financial services, we should also make sure to spend time learning from what’s happening on the ground.

Check out the <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/yiibu/the-emerging-global-web">full slideshow from Yiibu</a>:

[slideshare id=33272498&amp;doc=emerging-global-web-by-yiibu-140408084509-phpapp01]

<em>Image credit: <a href="http://www.yy.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="text-decoration: underline">yy.com</span></a></em>

<strong>Have you read?</strong>

<a href="http://cfi-blog.org/2013/07/09/listening-to-clients-in-tanzania-client-insights-on-using-mobile-money/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Listening to Clients in Tanzania: Client Insights on Using Mobile Money</a>

<a href="http://cfi-blog.org/2013/04/25/new-mobile-platform-empowers-farmers-in-uganda/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">New Mobile Platform Empowers Farmers in Uganda</a>

<a href="http://cfi-blog.org/2014/05/12/urbanization-the-informal-economy-and-microfinance/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Urbanization, the Informal Economy, and Microfinance</a>

&nbsp;

Selling Sheep on Instagram and Sending Virtual Gifts to Karaoke Singers in the New Mobile Internet Economy

Mayada El-Zoghbi

Daniel Balson

Brianna Nelson

Eric Zuehlke

Europe and Central Asia

Russian Federation

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

Cambodia

Brazil

China

Colombia

Dominican Republic

Ghana

Guatemala

India

Mexico

Nigeria

Paraguay

Peru

Tanzania

United States

Zambia

Entrepreneurs of MSMEs

Payments

Refugees and Migrants

Remittances

Saving

Underserved Groups

MSME/SME Finance

Women

Consumer Protection

Over-indebtedness

Policy, Regulation and Government Initiatives

Product Pricing

Transparency

Agent Banking

Aging and Older Adults

Financial Capability

Financial Inclusion Strategy

Fintechs

Housing Finance

Impact Investing

Microfinance

Mobile Banking

Persons With Disabilities

Risk Management

Social Performance

Youth

Blog Post

China’s economy has experienced tremendous growth in recent years, with a booming micro, small, and medium enterprise (MSME) market. There are over 50 million MSMEs in China that collectively account for over 60% of China’s GDP and over 50% of the government’s tax income. These businesses create 80% of total employment in China’s urban areas.

Despite China’s overall economic growth, the need to foster full financial inclusion is still imperative. In 2010, 38 million MSMEs lacked access to formal financial services, forcing them to borrow informally from friends, family, and moneylenders.

India is a global leader in financial inclusion. For over a decade, Accion has worked with and learned from India’s innovators, investors, and policymakers to expand economic opportunity for its people and businesses.

Most of Mexico’s people lack access to a formal bank account. Accion has worked in Mexico for decades to create a thriving and competitive financial sector that embraces innovation and protects its clients.

Though Nigeria’s government has set ambitious goals for financial inclusion, the majority of its people lack a formal bank account. Accion has worked in the country since 2007 to expand access to financial services.